Political change and public security?the prospect of Taiwan

Fonte: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6V65-3VVM7X1-5-...
Acesso em: 4 nov. 2009.

This paper examines the change in public security of the Taiwanese society that was caused
by the political democratization movements and the cross-Strait interactions. In addition to
sociological explanations of crime, this paper adopts and integrates theoretical concepts of
futures studies. Official statistics of longitudinal essence were utilized to serve the purpose of
macro analyses. Delphi survey method was employed in collecting micro data that were subsequently
used for forecasting the future social life individuals anticipate. Findings support
the macro hypothesis that political alteration directly as well as indirectly contributes to the
change of public security. A chaotic progress in social order is in sight, and the restoration
of public safety is not far away. The series of scenarios, forecasting on the basis of the timeframe
concepts of futurists, is likely to begin and conclude within the coming five years.
However, the manner the scenarios proceed can be altered depending upon how knowledgeable
the government is in foreseeing the forthcoming probable future of chaos. Ó 1999 Elsevier
Science Ltd. All rights reserved.